Elimination predictions:
Alex Bowman: Bowman is lucky to be racing in the playoffs. If anyone else in the top 5 at Daytona had won last week other than Ryan Blaney, he would have been bumped. The 48 car is consistently the weakest Hendrick car, and I don’t see that changing. His playoff run will end after Bristol.
Austin Dillon: This one is easy. RCR has struggled all year, and Dillon had to win his way into the playoffs late at Richmond. That was a magical night for him, but I don’t see the 3 car pulling out enough points in these three races to keep his season alive.
Josh Berry: One of the feel-good stories of the year has been Josh Berry winning in the 21 car for the Wood Brothers and stepping up the overall performance of that team. But that feel-good story will come to an end in the first playoff round. The future is bright for Berry and he could shock us, but he’ll likely fall behind the stiff competition and stay below the cut line.
Austin Cindric: Currently a hair above the line, Cindric has been the least consistent Penske driver this season, and also lagged far behind most of the other playoff contenders. With that in mind, barring a significant breakthrough or a win, Cindric will likely drop below the line and be eliminated in this first round.

Race winner predictions:

Darlington: Denny Hamlin
Gateway: Ryan Blaney
Bristol: Joey Logano

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Round of 12: New Hampshire, Kansas, Roval (Charlotte)

Elimination predictions:
Ross Chastain: Chastain has raced admirably for Trackhouse this year, as the team has struggled a bit more than in past years, so anything is possible for this very determined driver. But I’m not sure he has the equipment to make it through to the round of 8.
Chase Briscoe: One of the best qualifiers in 2025, including 3 poles at crown jewel races and nearly sweeping all 4, Briscoe’s issues are with completing full races effectively and keeping his car up front. It happens at times, but not consistently enough to get him past the Round of 12.
Christopher Bell: I’ll call this my first major elimination, as Bell started off the year with a string of three straight wins and everyone thought he was unstoppable. Then he began to stumble a bit, and isn’t up front and contending for wins often in recent weeks. Other teams caught up, so the JGR squad needs to find that early-season form if he’s going to make a deep run. I don’t see it happening.
Chase Elliott: A fan favorite, Chase has been remarkably consistent this year, which is a good sign. But a bad sign is he only has one win. And in the playoffs, when a win moves you to the next round, it’s likely 3 winners will move forward, limiting the amount of drivers who can move forward on points. If Chase can’t find a winning form, consistency may not be enough.

Race winner predictions:

New Hampshire: Ryan Blaney
Kansas: Bubba Wallace
Roval (Charlotte): Shane Van Gisbergen

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Round of 8: Las Vegas, Talladega, Martinsville

Elimination predictions:
Shane Van Gisbergen: Winner of four races this year (all on road courses), SVG was the topic of much discussion, but he has been improving on ovals, and deserves to be a playoff driver. He also will likely win at the Roval, putting him through to the Round of 8. But beyond that, his path is difficult. Up against the best of the sport at a 1.5 mile track, 2.66 mile superspeedway, and half-mile short track, he’ll likely struggle as he did much of the season, and fall short of the Final Four. Still, that’s quite a solid run even if it ends here. If he ever gets strong on ovals, the rest of the field should be scared.
William Byron: Mr. Consistent, he was atop the points nearly all year, so logic may dictate that he is a Final Four lock. But the Playoffs are a different animal, and while it’s certainly possible Byron gets to Phoenix with his title hopes still alive, I only see one Hendrick car making it to that group, and his name is Kyle Larson.
Bubba Wallace: Bubba has matured tremendously this season, and his impressive win at the Brickyard gained him a lot of respect. I predict a win at Kansas gets him into the Round of 8, but once here he’s unable to make the final leap to the championship battle. He has won at Talladega, so it’s possible he could win his way forward, but I predict his teammate will be the one to capitalize at the drafting track and win his way forward.
Joey Logano: Cue the “It’s not an even year” jokes. Cup champion in 2018, 2022 and 2024, the most titles among current drivers, reaching a fourth title would tie him with Jeff Gordon, only trailing 7-timers Earnhart, Petty and Johnson. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been the strongest car in the Penske stable in 2025, and I don’t see him moving on to the title fight.

Race winner predictions:

Las Vegas: Kyle Larson
Talladega: Tyler Reddick
Martinsville: Denny Hamlin

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Championship race: Phoenix

Elimination predictions:

Tyler Reddick: Just making it this far will be a huge accomplishment for Reddick, who had to squeeze into the playoffs on points. While he’s often fast, Reddick seems to have a knack for getting caught up in wrecks more often than most of his competitors, whether his fault or caused by others. I see him running strong throughout the playoffs to make this Final Four battle, but not having enough juice left to claim the crown.
Kyle Larson: It’s a broken record, but I must reiterate that Kyle Larson is one of the best drivers in this series, period, and can win on any given week. And he’ll win his way into the playoffs by crushing the competition at Las Vegas. He’ll run strong at Phoenix, but fall just short of the title.
Ryan Blaney: The champion in 2023, Blaney has emerged as a strong title contender in 2025, working his way up to a 2nd place regular season points finish, capped off by an amazing run at Daytona to pass 13 cars in the last two laps to win the race. Blaney is a guy who has perhaps the best racing IQ and understanding of what it takes to win in the sport, with one exception — the guy who will finish just ahead of him and claim the title.

Race winner and Champion prediction:
Denny Hamlin: Yes, after two decades in the sport and 58 wins (2nd most among current drivers behind Kyle Busch), Denny Hamlin will win at Phoenix and claim his first Cup series title. Ironically, it will happen in a year when he’s going head-to-head with NASCAR over the charter system, and could potentially have to fold his own race team 23XI Racing. Seeing NASCAR brass hand Denny the championship trophy amid the ongoing war of words and court documents would be one of the strangest but most intriguing moments in this sport’s history. But I believe Denny — who has gained more racing knowledge over his career at Gibbs than most competitors, will finally pull that all together and get the championship monkey off his back.
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