After a season dominated by Toyota in the victory column, with Toyota winning more than half the races, it appears Chevy is destined to claim the driver’s championship this year, barring a massive collapse from Hendrick Motorsports driver Kyle Larson.

With a 73-point cushion over the next driver in point standings, Larson appears likely to take his third crown after an incredible Chase performance where he has been lights out. To put things in perspective, his finishes in the Chase have been:

— 5^th
— 1^st
— 2^nd
— 1^st
— 2^nd
— 6^th
— 34^th
— 1^st

That’s an average of 6.5, and if you throw out the one bad race he had in 34^th, Larson has averaged a finish of 2.5 in the remaining 7 races.

Still, Kyle knows this sport can throw everyone a curveball, and is not celebrating until the math is official.

“I still feel a lot of pressure. It’s so easy for the points to swing, and you’ve seen that throughout The Chase. A team or driver can have a great day and score maximum points, and we could have a day like we had at Phoenix [Raceway], and boom, they’re right back in it. So, I do feel a lot of pressure. Ultimately, I’d love to go to Martinsville and gain the points I need to lock it up, but if we can’t do that, I still want to have a solid day and give ourselves as much of a cushion as possible heading into Homestead. We’ve done a super good job of staying focused over the past couple of months of The Chase, and we can’t let those thoughts creep into our minds. My goal is to stay locked in and stay on offense.”

After years of justifiable grumbling from fans about the playoff system as it has existed in recent years, with multiple resets and cutoff rounds, and cries that the champions crowned in recent years weren’t truly deserving due to the one-race finale, change has come to NASCAR in a big way.

Starting with the 2026 season, the sport is returning to its (recent) past. No, we’re not getting a full season championship with no points resets, like we had from 1975 through 2003, but we got as close we were ever going to get — a return to a (slightly altered) version of the 10-race Chase that launched back in 2004 (and similar setups in the O’Reilly and Truck series as well).

In one week, an exciting title battle will take place in a motorsports finale.

After a bad strategy call from the McLaren team allowed Red Bull Racing’s Max Verstappen to claim the victory in the Qatar Grand Prix, the 4-time defending champion moved up to 2nd in the Formula 1 standings, just 12 points behind points leader Lando Norris. Norris’ teammate Oscar Piastri is also still alive in the points, 16 points back.

With 25 points up for grabs to the winner at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, there are scenarios where Norris, Verstappen, Piastri each emerge as the 2025 champ.

Will Verstappen, who was more than 100 points out of the title fight as recently as August, complete a miraculous comeback and claim his fifth straight championship?

Will Norris hold off his two competitors and claim his first championship?

Can Piastri overcome the longest odds of the top 3 to become one of the youngest F1 champs ever?

Natural is better

What’s the lesson of all this? It shows that natural championship battles are much more engaging than anything that is manufactured, as we’re seeing in other racing series.

Championship weekends are supposed to be celebratory. Fun. Thrilling.

While the losing team’s fans may be upset, they can still appreciate a game well-played between competitors.

2025 Championship Weekend was a whole different vibe for NASCAR, and not in a good way.

With nonstop talk going into the weekend about the legitimacy of the one-race battle for the title, we knew the results were going to be looked at under a microscope.

To be frank, this weekend at Phoenix had a funereal feel to many fans, who saw this as the end of an era where changes that have been implemented have had unintended consequences that have hurt the sport’s integrity — and as the weekend played out, we saw two more heartbreaking examples of why this playoff format needs to end and a major reset is needed for the sport in 2026.

Friday Miracle from Heim, but disappointment for Zilisch on Saturday

To start the weekend, disaster was averted on Friday courtesy of a late 7-wide banzai move by Corey Heim that allowed him to claim a title that rightfully should have already been his. If he hadn’t won the championship due to late cautions, it would’ve been a travesty, as Heim had perhaps the most dominant season ever in the series’ history. So, we got through one day without a calamity.

But then our luck ran out.

When Talladega was included as part of this final elimination round of the 2025 playoffs, it was sure to be a Wild Card. Everyone wondered just how this unpredictable round would play out as the Final Four was determined.

Interestingly, despite lots of drama, a common trend returned at the end of the Talladega race — Joe Gibbs Racing contenders stepping up when it mattered most. The flagship Toyota team, fresh off a Vegas win by Denny Hamlin to lock into the Final Four, took the victory with Chase Briscoe at Talladega (after a strong push from teammate Ty Gibbs on the final lap). Now, two JGR drivers (Denny Hamlin and Briscoe) are going to contend for the title at Phoenix, and their third playoff driver Christopher Bell sits 37 points above the cutoff line heading into Martinsville this weekend.

In what is likely the final Cup series championship decided under this one-race Final Four format, JGR and Toyota have stepped up to take the reins and dominate the playoffs in 2025, and are likely to have a 75 percent chance of claiming the title at Phoenix — a feat also accomplished by JGR previously in 2019 (Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin).

“I don’t know what’s more unbelievable – the fact that we’re going to the Championship 4 or that I won a superspeedway race. It’s unbelievable,” Briscoe said after his win. “Super excited to try to get some redemption and have a shot to win a championship. It’s going to be just an unbelievable opportunity.”

With a flurry of debate surrounding them, the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are upon us. Whether you like the format or not, it’s time for 16 drivers to battle for the crown, with cuts along the way to 12, 8 and 4 remaining combatants.

Even with playoff points in the mix, everything is very tight as we begin the playoffs at the Lady in Black. Co-leaders Kyle Larson and William Byron are just 26 points ahead of the cut line entering the first round — which will take place at Darlington, Gateway and Bristol. All it will take is a quick Darlington stripe to knock someone from the points lead to below the cut line.

Read on for my full playoff predictions as we enter this 10-week battle.

Round of 16: Darlington, Gateway, Bristol

The big question as we start the playoffs is whether any of the drivers below the cut line will be able to claw their way out of danger and push others into that predicament. The points are so close, that of course this can happen, even in week 1, but once the three weeks are complete, I predict that only one of the four currently below the cutline (Tyler Reddick) will survive and move on.

With the racing wrapped up for 2023, and the teams already looking forward to getting back to it next February starting with the Clash at the Coliseum, this is a time for Cup teams to reflect on what went right (or wrong) in 2023. And more importantly, what the future might hold in next year’s battle.

Below is part one of my reflections on the year that was, and what’s to come in 2024.

Team Penske
Results: Ryan Blaney (champion); Joey Logano (12th in points); Austin Cindric (24th in points)
Grade: A-

Team Penske was not the championship favorite all season, but the great thing about a playoff system is that sometimes a competitor will rise above expectations. 

Just as the New York Giants beat a previously undefeated New England Patriots in the Super Bowl, the formerly young Ryan Blaney won his way into the Final Four and then rose above the stiff Hendrick competition in the final race of the season to become the 2023 Cup Champion. That gave Roger Penske a second straight Cup title, following Joey Logano’s title in 2022. Blaney will be an excellent champion for the sport, and his win shows you can never count out the Captain.

As we often hear late in a race broadcast, the pay window is now open. And not just for one race, but for the whole shebang.

It’s that time of year where it’s all on the line, and the sport will crown its champions out in Phoenix before heading off into the sunset until February. Whether you like the format or not, we have four drivers who have risen above the rest and have their shot at glory out in the Soronan desert.

Here’s my take on how things will shake out this weekend, as these gladiators take to their chariots for the final time in 2023.

Saturday’s race at Daytona was an exciting conclusion to a season where we’ve seen everything under the sun, as we finished our second regular season with the Next Gen car.

The three-wide racing for much of the night was downright thrilling and the best of what plate racing has to offer. On the flip side, no pun intended, Ryan Preece went on a terrifying ride when he barrel rolled at least a dozen times before finally landing right-side up. Thankfully he did not sustain any serious injuries, nor did any of the drivers involved in a “big one” at the end of the second stage.

While the extreme tumbling is cause for investigation by NASCAR (and they are examining the Preece car for data on why that happened), the fact that Preece could walk away shows that the Next Gen car has the goods to keep drivers safe even in extreme wreck situations like the one Preece experienced on Saturday.

The big news, of course was Bubba Wallace’s strong run that locked him into the final playoffs spot. Making the playoffs is a big burden off Bubba’s shoulders. And now he just has to perform and try to get as far along in the playoffs as possible. This will be a tough task to execute, with so many strong drivers ahead of him. But if he makes it to at least the round of 12, I would consider that a successful year and a launch pad for further playoff marches in the future.

Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman both missed the playoffs, and it’s been a rough year for Hendrick, which has only 2 cars in the playoffs. William Byron and Kyle Larson qualified and should both be contenders. But to put that in perspective, the Hendrick team only qualified as many cars as RFK Racing and 23XI racing, and one less than Joe Gibbs Racing.

BROOKLYN, Mich. — Beyond RFK Racing stealing the show at Michigan Speedway on Monday, there were a lot of other story lines to talk about, including some that impacted the playoff battle.

Martin Truex Jr. continues hot streak

Truex was the fastest overall car at Michigan on Sunday/Monday, but in the end he fell one position short in second.

But he has no reason to hang his head. Truex has 3 wins, 9 top-5s, 13 top-10s, only 1 DNF and 5 stage wins this season. He has a dominating lead in the Cup series point standings, leading his closest competitor by 57 points. Unless he collapses or wrecks out at the upcoming road courses and Daytona, he should be our regular season Cup champion and get some extra bonus points for the playoffs.

“We are excited. Every week we feel like we have a shot to win, that is all I can ask for,” Truex said. “It’s exciting to come to the track every weekend knowing what these guys are going to bring me. Hopefully, we can keep it up.”