As we often hear late in a race broadcast, the pay window is now open. And not just for one race, but for the whole shebang.

It’s that time of year where it’s all on the line, and the sport will crown its champions out in Phoenix before heading off into the sunset until February. Whether you like the format or not, we have four drivers who have risen above the rest and have their shot at glory out in the Soronan desert.

Here’s my take on how things will shake out this weekend, as these gladiators take to their chariots for the final time in 2023.

BROOKLYN, Mich. —John Hunter Nemechek took his fifth victory of the season on Saturday, but after Stage 1 you couldn’t have predicted the eventual ending of today’s Xfinity race at Michigan Speedway.

About a dozen laps into Stage 1, a skirmish involving three Joe Gibbs Racing cars (Sammy Smith in the 18, Ty Gibbs in the 19, and Nemechek in the 20) knocked Smith out of the race and sent Gibbs and Nemechek spinning.

Luckily for Nemechek, no significant damage was incurred, and by Stage 2 he had found his way to the lead, and sailed away with a Stage 2 victory and eventually a race win at the end of 125 laps. Gibbs also recovered well and finished in 4th.

Of note, it was the 200th Xfinity race for Joe Gibbs Racing. Nemechek ended up leading 65 of the 125 laps in the race to earn his first victory in Brooklyn and the 7th of his Xfinity Series career.

There’s something about the 54 car this year in the Xfinity Series. The car has taken an amazing 11 checkered flags in the 2021 season: 5 courtesy of Cup champion Kyle Busch (who thankfully has moved on from Xfinity racing, allegedly); 1 from Truck Series regular John Hunter Nemechek, 1 from Cup racer Christopher Bell, and — most curiously — four from the young man they call Ty Gibbs (aka the team owner’s grandson). Gibbs had an amazing Saturday at Kansas, winning the Xfinity race, taking the ARCA pole, and nearly winning the ARCA race (he lost on the final restart). Oh, and he also claimed the ARCA championship.

Did I mention Ty Gibbs is only 19 years old (yes, he was born in October of 2002, in case you didn’t already feel old).

The hype around him is unlike anything we’ve seen about a young driver like this since, perhaps, Joey Logano in his “sliced bread” days. (Of note: The team Logano drove as a teen — Joe Gibbs Racing)

2020 has been the busiest NASCAR Silly Season in years — Jimmie Johnson and Clint Bowyer wrapping up their Cup careers; the surprise return of Matt Kenseth as a fill-in; Matt DiBenedetto holding on to the Wood Brothers ride by the skin of his teeth for one more year with Austin Cindric taking over in 2022; and much more.

Here’s my breakdown of who gets high marks on their new ride transition, and who has a rockier road ahead.

CUP SERIES:

Grade: A
Driver: Bubba Wallace, 23XI Racing
The biggest announcement of 2020 was a home run move for Bubba Wallace. Bubba did what he could to improve the 43 team, and they had a great relationship with him, but in the end it’s all about getting to the next level. Teaming up with the new 23XI Racing team owned by Denny Hamlin and NBA legend Michael Jordan is the perfect scenario for Bubba to succeed and reach new heights in his career. He’ll no doubt have a bevy of sponsors and funding to help boost the competitive nature of the 23 car, and the Toyota team will be affiliated with Joe Gibbs Racing. With everything he’s done to push forward the social justice movement within NASCAR, Bubba is arguably the sport’s most recognizable name outside the core fan base. And if he can be successful in his new ride and run up front regularly and contend for wins, it will be huge boost to the sport as a whole and draw in new fans. He’ll have a lot of people rooting for him to succeed, both inside and outside the sport. 

While it seems like the 2019 season just ended, the start of NASCAR racing in 2020 is just weeks away.

As fans anticipate the new season, here are a handful of stories to keep in the back of your mind that will be worth watching as the year unfolds.

Cup Rookie of the Year Battle
There’s a larger crowd than usual battling for this honor in 2020.

• Christopher Bell in the 95 car (as a temporary stopover until a Gibbs car is vacant)
• Cole Custer in Stewart-Haas Racing’s 41 car
• Tyler Reddick replacing Daniel Hemric in the 8 car for RCR.

Rounding out the ROTY contenders (battling for 4^th, in all honesty, with inferior equipment) are:

• Quin Houff (#00 car — StarCom)
• Brennan Poole (#15 car — Premium)
• John Hunter Nemechek (#38 car — Front Row)

So how will this battle finish up? The way I see it, Custer has the best equipment out the gate; Reddick has a chance at ROTY if he can avoid the wrecks Hemric had; Bell has the most talent of the bunch and ability to get the win that seemed close but eluded Matt DiBenedetto in the 95 in 2019.