As we often hear late in a race broadcast, the pay window is now open. And not just for one race, but for the whole shebang.

It’s that time of year where it’s all on the line, and the sport will crown its champions out in Phoenix before heading off into the sunset until February. Whether you like the format or not, we have four drivers who have risen above the rest and have their shot at glory out in the Soronan desert.

Here’s my take on how things will shake out this weekend, as these gladiators take to their chariots for the final time in 2023.

BROOKLYN, Mich. —John Hunter Nemechek took his fifth victory of the season on Saturday, but after Stage 1 you couldn’t have predicted the eventual ending of today’s Xfinity race at Michigan Speedway.

About a dozen laps into Stage 1, a skirmish involving three Joe Gibbs Racing cars (Sammy Smith in the 18, Ty Gibbs in the 19, and Nemechek in the 20) knocked Smith out of the race and sent Gibbs and Nemechek spinning.

Luckily for Nemechek, no significant damage was incurred, and by Stage 2 he had found his way to the lead, and sailed away with a Stage 2 victory and eventually a race win at the end of 125 laps. Gibbs also recovered well and finished in 4th.

Of note, it was the 200th Xfinity race for Joe Gibbs Racing. Nemechek ended up leading 65 of the 125 laps in the race to earn his first victory in Brooklyn and the 7th of his Xfinity Series career.

BROOKLYN, Mich. — To say that Noah Gragson’s debut season for Legacy Motor Club in the No. 42 Cup car has been a struggle would be the understatement of the year.

In 21 races this season, he has only achieved two top-20 finishes (a 12th at Atlanta, and a 20th place at COTA), and he missed one race with concussion symptoms.

But things just got a whole lot worse for Noah, as he has been indefinitely suspended by both Legacy Motor Club and NASCAR for liking a social media post featuring a meme that belittled and made fun of the death of George Floyd at the hands of police. (NOTE: I won’t repeat what it says or share it out of decency, but I’ll say the meme is of the same despicable type that got NASCAR’s Mike Wallace suspended a few years back)

Gragson will be replaced in the 42 car at Michigan by Chevy’s super-sub Josh Berry, who got word of his new assignment for the weekend less then two hours before practice.

"We have made the decision to suspend Noah Gragson effective immediately regarding his actions that do not represent the values of our team," Legacy Motor Club said.

BROOKLYN, Mich. — In a sport like NASCAR, where it generally takes many years to establish yourself as a competitive team, it’s rare to see a new team break through as a serious contender for race wins and championships. That’s especially true at the Cup level, but also at the Xfinity level, where a few teams have dominated wins for years (Joe Gibbs Racing, Jr. Motorsports, Team Penske, etc.).

That’s what makes the rise of Kaulig Racing over the past few years a truly inspiring story that fans should embrace. It reminds me of how Furniture Row Racing grew from a small, upstart team based in Denver to winning a title with Martin Truex Jr., before eventually shutting down.

Hopefully, Kaulig doesn’t follow the last part of that blueprint, as they’re a team on the rise (entering Cup full-time in 2022, in addition to maintaining its Xfinity teams) that would be a strong addition to the garage for decades to come.

2020 has been the busiest NASCAR Silly Season in years — Jimmie Johnson and Clint Bowyer wrapping up their Cup careers; the surprise return of Matt Kenseth as a fill-in; Matt DiBenedetto holding on to the Wood Brothers ride by the skin of his teeth for one more year with Austin Cindric taking over in 2022; and much more.

Here’s my breakdown of who gets high marks on their new ride transition, and who has a rockier road ahead.

CUP SERIES:

Grade: A
Driver: Bubba Wallace, 23XI Racing
The biggest announcement of 2020 was a home run move for Bubba Wallace. Bubba did what he could to improve the 43 team, and they had a great relationship with him, but in the end it’s all about getting to the next level. Teaming up with the new 23XI Racing team owned by Denny Hamlin and NBA legend Michael Jordan is the perfect scenario for Bubba to succeed and reach new heights in his career. He’ll no doubt have a bevy of sponsors and funding to help boost the competitive nature of the 23 car, and the Toyota team will be affiliated with Joe Gibbs Racing. With everything he’s done to push forward the social justice movement within NASCAR, Bubba is arguably the sport’s most recognizable name outside the core fan base. And if he can be successful in his new ride and run up front regularly and contend for wins, it will be huge boost to the sport as a whole and draw in new fans. He’ll have a lot of people rooting for him to succeed, both inside and outside the sport. 

After winning the 2019 rookie-of-the-year title in the NASCAR Xfinity Series, Chase Briscoe will race for an Xfinity Series championship in 2020 as he returns to Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR).  

Briscoe is a two-time winner in the Xfinity Series, with both of his victories coming in SHR-prepared Ford Mustangs. The 25-year-old from Mitchell, Indiana, finished fifth in the championship standings in 2019, earning a berth in the NASCAR Playoffs with a win, two poles and 13 top-five and 26 top-10 finishes in his first full season of Xfinity Series competition.

“This is the first time I’ll be able to run back-to-back, full seasons with the same team, and I couldn’t be happier to do it with Stewart-Haas Racing,” said Briscoe, a development driver with Ford Performance. “Their faith in me means a lot, and I want to reward them and Ford with more wins and a run for the championship.”

“We are thrilled to continue Chase’s development program with a second full season running the Xfinity Series for Stewart-Haas Racing,” said Mark Rushbrook, global director, Ford Performance Motorsports. “Chase has proven himself well so far and we’re looking forward to continuing his progression as he competes for an Xfinity Series championship for SHR and Ford.”

While it seems like the 2019 season just ended, the start of NASCAR racing in 2020 is just weeks away.

As fans anticipate the new season, here are a handful of stories to keep in the back of your mind that will be worth watching as the year unfolds.

Cup Rookie of the Year Battle
There’s a larger crowd than usual battling for this honor in 2020.

• Christopher Bell in the 95 car (as a temporary stopover until a Gibbs car is vacant)
• Cole Custer in Stewart-Haas Racing’s 41 car
• Tyler Reddick replacing Daniel Hemric in the 8 car for RCR.

Rounding out the ROTY contenders (battling for 4^th, in all honesty, with inferior equipment) are:

• Quin Houff (#00 car — StarCom)
• Brennan Poole (#15 car — Premium)
• John Hunter Nemechek (#38 car — Front Row)

So how will this battle finish up? The way I see it, Custer has the best equipment out the gate; Reddick has a chance at ROTY if he can avoid the wrecks Hemric had; Bell has the most talent of the bunch and ability to get the win that seemed close but eluded Matt DiBenedetto in the 95 in 2019.