With the announcement of Martin Truex Jr’s retirement from full-time Cup racing officially announced (after years of reporters asking him about it), now comes the fun part: We get to see the dominoes fall.

Silly Season is in full effect, and here are my predictions on how things will play out in the months to come.

No. 19 car: Joe Gibbs Racing
So many possibilities here. There are rumors that Chase Briscoe is the front-runner, which makes sense since he’s a proven winner who is young with a lot of strong years ahead of him. There are also fans who would love to see a return from JGR’s past discards. Could there be a Kyle Busch reunion, since his new team at RCR has been struggling this year? What about Erik Jones, now floundering at Legacy Motor Club? And don’t leave out the young Toyota drivers waiting in the wings — John Hunter Nemechek was once a shoe-in for this ride, but now that may not be the case. Corey Heim and Chandler Smith are also solid young talents eyeing the ride.

So basically this is the prime seat for 2025, and everyone wants it. If it goes to Briscoe that’s a major coup for Toyota to pull one of Ford’s promising young drivers. And I believe this is the route they’ll go, leaving Nemechek and Heim to look to other teams like an expanding 23XI for ride options.

Stewart-Haas refugees: Where will they go?

The big question this year — with a four-car team shutting down (and likely its Xfinity program), where will all their drivers go?

Chase Briscoe — LIkely going to the 19 car, but other options within the Ford camp include a third car for RFK (if they expand) or Wood Brothers’ 21 car (when Harrison Burton is inevitably let go due to underperforming).

Noah Gragson and Josh Berry — I’m lumping these two together because I can see them going to the same place: Front Row Motorsports. With a newly announced third charter, and Michael McDowell already leaving for Spire, there is only one spot filled right now (Todd Gilliland). Gragson and Berry are two promising young drivers that should be high on Front Row’s target list. And if they’re smart, they’ll keep Rodney Childers on as Berry’s crew chief.

Ryan Preece — Preece has worked his way up to Cup after showing his talent in the lower series, and he’s definitely got talent. But without bringing a lot of sponsor funding, I can see him getting sidelined from Cup in 2025. Whether he makes it back up the ladder down the road is not a certainty.

Riley Herbst — Considering that he brings daddy’s money with him, finding another ride shouldn’t be a problem for Herbst. And he should stay in Xfinity at least another year, as I don’t believe he’s ready for the much tougher Cup series.

Cole Custer — I can see him getting the Wood Brothers ride in Cup if Briscoe goes to the 19. But if the Cup slots are all filled, he is strong enough of a driver to land a quality ride in the Xfinity Series as he continues to grind his way up to the top series for another go-around.

Other thoughts
— Zane Smith has struggled mightily in the 71 car this year, and will be looking for a new ride for 2025. He might be one of the drivers better suited by dropping down to the Xfinity Series rather than struggling again next year at another bad Cup team.

— Austin Dillon should make the choice to step down from his ride at RCR. He’s only damaging the team’s legacy with his abysmal performance, and would be better suited for a management role in his grandfather’s company. It’s unlikely, but that move would open up yet another high-profile ride for the many talented drivers seeking a new spot.

— It would seem logical to me that once it’s announced that Trackhouse will receive one of the SHR charters (Front Row has claimed one officially, and rumors are that 23XI and Trackhouse each have one too; TBD on the fourth), Shane Van Gisbergen should be given that ride. He’s a clear talent on the road courses, and has shown promise on the ovals. Moving him to Cup is a no-brainer to me.

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After 21 years, 674 races, 34 wins, 146 top-5s and 287 top-10s, 23 pole positions and 12,639 laps led in the Cup series, one Cup series championship and two Xfinity (then Busch) Series championships, Martin Truex will bid farewell to full-time Cup racing at the conclusion of the 2024 season.

His career is one with many highs and lows, and looked to be on life support on multiple occasions early on. Despite winning two Busch Series titles driving for Dale Jr.’s Chance 2 Motorsports, he did not find consistent success in his early years with Dale Earnhardt Inc. and Michael Waltrip Racing, and after a decade in the sport he had only notched 2 victories.

Furniture Row miracle

Truex’s rise began at Furniture Row Racing, the now-defunct “little team that could” based out of Colorado owned by Barney Visser that took Truex in starting in 2014 (in the wake of the disastrous “spingate” incident that Truex was a part of in 2013, a PR nightmare that left him looking for a ride). This one-car team was not likely to be a path to winning races and competing for championships. But that’s exactly what happened.

Truex won 17 races in his five years at Furniture Row, including 8 wins during his Cup championship-winning season in 2017. The scenes of that championship race and Truex’s celebration with longtime partner Sherry Pollex (RIP) are some of the most emotional and memorable in recent NASCAR history. This one-car team had stunned the field to win the title and slayed all the giant three- and four-car battalions.

Strong finish at Gibbs

After his time with the Furniture Row team came to a conclusion when the team sadly closed its doors at the end of 2018, Truex then moved on to powerhouse Joe Gibbs Racing, where he has continued to rack up wins (15 in total under the JGR banner).

Perhaps the most telling stat on Truex: Between 2017 and 2021 he not only won the lone Cup title, but also finished 2nd in points 3 different times. If a few small things change in those championship races, we could be talking about a multiple-time series champion.

So what’s the lesson from Truex’s career? He’s proof that a talented driver will eventually deliver if given the right equipment. The talent was always there, but the circumstances were not always in his favor at the teams where he drove.

Despite a decade of mostly struggling as a mid-tier performer in the Cup series, nowhere near showing championship caliber, a little team from Colorado showed faith in him, and together they shocked the world.

Other drivers have had late-career resurgences. Michael Waltrip comes to mind, for example. But none have taken that opportunity and made the most out of it as well as Martin Truex did. If you went back in time to 2014 and told a 34-year-old Truex that he would retire in a decade with 34 wins, he would have told you to get your head examined.

But it happened, and it’s a great story with a Hall of Fame spot likely awaiting Truex down the road. And don’t lock in those career stats just yet: He very well could knock out a few more wins and contend for one more title before he transitions to part-time in 2025.

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Saturday’s race at Daytona was an exciting conclusion to a season where we’ve seen everything under the sun, as we finished our second regular season with the Next Gen car.

The three-wide racing for much of the night was downright thrilling and the best of what plate racing has to offer. On the flip side, no pun intended, Ryan Preece went on a terrifying ride when he barrel rolled at least a dozen times before finally landing right-side up. Thankfully he did not sustain any serious injuries, nor did any of the drivers involved in a “big one” at the end of the second stage.

While the extreme tumbling is cause for investigation by NASCAR (and they are examining the Preece car for data on why that happened), the fact that Preece could walk away shows that the Next Gen car has the goods to keep drivers safe even in extreme wreck situations like the one Preece experienced on Saturday.

The big news, of course was Bubba Wallace’s strong run that locked him into the final playoffs spot. Making the playoffs is a big burden off Bubba’s shoulders. And now he just has to perform and try to get as far along in the playoffs as possible. This will be a tough task to execute, with so many strong drivers ahead of him. But if he makes it to at least the round of 12, I would consider that a successful year and a launch pad for further playoff marches in the future.

Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman both missed the playoffs, and it’s been a rough year for Hendrick, which has only 2 cars in the playoffs. William Byron and Kyle Larson qualified and should both be contenders. But to put that in perspective, the Hendrick team only qualified as many cars as RFK Racing and 23XI racing, and one less than Joe Gibbs Racing.

BROOKLYN, Mich. — Beyond RFK Racing stealing the show at Michigan Speedway on Monday, there were a lot of other story lines to talk about, including some that impacted the playoff battle.

Martin Truex Jr. continues hot streak

Truex was the fastest overall car at Michigan on Sunday/Monday, but in the end he fell one position short in second.

But he has no reason to hang his head. Truex has 3 wins, 9 top-5s, 13 top-10s, only 1 DNF and 5 stage wins this season. He has a dominating lead in the Cup series point standings, leading his closest competitor by 57 points. Unless he collapses or wrecks out at the upcoming road courses and Daytona, he should be our regular season Cup champion and get some extra bonus points for the playoffs.

“We are excited. Every week we feel like we have a shot to win, that is all I can ask for,” Truex said. “It’s exciting to come to the track every weekend knowing what these guys are going to bring me. Hopefully, we can keep it up.”

NASCAR’s bet on a spectacle in L.A. paid off

Many doubted NASCAR when this unprecedented event was announced. But between the amazing and historic venue that looked beautiful on TV (and no doubt in person, too), tremendous on-track action and musical entertainment from Pitbull and Ice Cube, and an impressive crowd, the Clash at the Coliseum is something that exceeded NASCAR’s wildest expectations.

Joey Logano put on a tough battle with Kyle Busch up front to take the inaugural win for the Next Gen car, and in the process NASCAR exposed itself to a California audience largely composed of people who don’t normally follow the sport. Here’s hoping they stick around and remain fans of the sport as we head into the Daytona 500 and beyond.

I can see the Clash coming back to the Coliseum next year, but we need to be careful to make these things special, and not try to do them multiple times a year. Make it a destination every February; and later, once it’s served its purpose, give another stadium a chance. 

One thing is certain. The Clash, which had become an almost forgotten and frankly boring event at Daytona, has been revitalized, and we’re not going to back to the old ways again. Kudos to Ben Kennedy, the future of the sport’s leadership, for pushing the sport in bold, new directions despite some howling from legacy fans.

Things were heating up this weekend in Martinsville, both on the track and on pit road afterward. Here are my takeaways on what we learned this week in terms of the championship fight, and what that Logano-Hamlin fight was really all about.

Truex is top dog at Gibbs, Busch in the dumps

There is no more debate to be had. After his thoroughly dominating run to the checkered flag at Martinsville, Martin Truex Jr. and the 19 team are clearly the best chance that Joe Gibbs Racing has to win the Cup title this year.

Even if Truex, Hamlin and Kyle Busch all make it to the Homestead 4 (which at this point is very possible), former team leader Kyle Busch probably has the lowest chance at winning the title of the three. And honestly, the way things are going, he might not even be in the Final Four.

He’s been inching backward toward being a mid-pack car for what seems like a very long time now, he can’t figure out how to drive with this aero package as well as his teammates, and quite frankly doesn’t seem happy most of the time.